Cynics Unlimited

After years of defeat, disappointment and disastrous political strategies, things finally seem to be going Stephen Harper’s way.

Recently published polls indicate that if an election were held today, Harper’s Conservative Party could win a minority government with 33% of the popular vote. Harper’s gains in Ontario, which has remained elusive to post-Mulroney Conservative parties, were most significant with 38% of the popular vote vs. Paul Martin’s 36%. Harper’s often-maligned image has also made gains, with 36% of survey respondents saying their opinion of him has improved (28% said their view of Harper has worsened). Compare this to Paul Martin, whose image has suffered in a whopping 50% of respondent’s eyes.

Having learned from history, Stephen Harper is not ready to declare victory yet – the Conservative Party of Canada looked set to win a minority during the previous national election, until a last-minute surge by the Liberals relegated the Conservatives to opposition status once again. It is widely believed that the Ontarian fear of Harper’s socially-conservative “hidden agenda” led to a last minute switch back to the Liberals.

Does Stephen Harper need to fear another such defeat? The answer may depend on just how dissatisfied Ontarians are with the Liberal Party. While the initial round of scandals (including the much publicized Gomery / AdScam Inquiry) had only a marginal effect on the opinion of Canadians who didn’t already have a conservative-driven vendetta, more recent missteps have seriously shaken voter faith in the once-dominant Liberals:

• The recent Goodale scandal served to illustrate that the previous AdScam scandal was closer to Liberal routine than chance incident. The RCMP is currently investigating whether the department of Finance Minister Ralph Goodale leaked details of changes to the income trust tax policy to investors ahead of its official November 23rd release. Hours before the policy became law, stock trading soared unexpectedly for companies whose stocks were to benefit most from the policy changes
• The surge in gun crimes throughout the Greater Toronto Area highlighted the ineffectiveness of the $2 billion national gun registry. Only after the murder of Jane Creba –Toronto’s 52^nd gun death of 2005- did Martin seriously address the loose enforcement of laws that directly contributed to several of the deaths

It would be easy to assume that the Liberals have merely ignored the mounting problems for too long and Canadians are fed-up with the seemingly monthly scandals/boondoggles. This is probably part of the answer, but one also has to consider the economic effect of these problems. Investor confidence in Bay Street will be severely shaken if the RCMP does find evidence of inside knowledge being passed to select investors from the government. Increasingly negative media coverage of Toronto gang-fueled violence is already affecting both business and tourism downtown.

These economic problems go to the heart of the Liberal election strategy of selling their economic record. While Canada has economically flourished over the past few years, the future remains uncertain. Aside from the aforementioned problems, Canada’s increasingly strained relations with its largest trading partner are adding further jitters to Canadians on Bay Street and beyond. Fluctuating prices of raw exports have factored heavily into Canada’s economic growth, and these fortunes could turn on any international policy or economic change. A weakened tourist and/or business sector could leave Canada extremely vulnerable, especially provinces like Ontario that rely less on the export of raw materials.

With this in mind, the federal election would once again appear to be Harper’s to lose, as Liberal inaction and corruption are easing Ontario’s traditional hostility toward the Conservative candidate. As long as Harper continues to press on sure victory issues (crime, fighting corruption, taxation) while avoiding Ontario-repellents (abortion, bible-bashing, healthcare privatization) he could easily become our next Prime Minister. Canada requires political change in order to remain economically and politically viable; thus many wait in hope that Stephen Harper doesn’t pull another defeat from the jaws of victory.