So lucky, I should be located in Don Valley West for tonight’s provincial election, which has been unofficially declared the center of the voting universe by Ontario media. This is of course because Progressive Conservative leader John Tory has decided to run in this riding, taking on the powerful and popular Liberal incumbent, Education Minister Kathleen Wynne.
Tory decided to forgo running in a more conservative-safe riding for a riding that has votes traditionally Liberal on both the provincial and federal levels. A recent riding poll published by the National Post stated Wynne as having 52% support in DVW while Tory significantly trailed with 37%. Should the poll prove to be prophetic, Tory will have the dubious distinction of being one of the few party leaders to lose his own riding.
I cast my vote barely and hour ago, and the election process has been greatly refined. I know this because I got to vote on the first try this time around. My last attempt at voting was during the last federal election, and when I arrived I was directed to go to “one†of the desks in the front area. I went to the only open table, where the white-haired gentleman took one look at me and folded his arms in strong defiance. My wife was in shock – we thought we left this kind of bias up north. Before I could get any unkind words out, we were quickly escorted to another table by another polling official who noticed what was about to transpire.
The previous scenario would be impossible under the current voting process – tables were assigned by number and a stern-looking election official kept watch over everyone. The staff also suddenly got diverse – far more diverse than Leaside, at least. Security was also increased – after taking my driver’s license, the lady at the table asked me to state my full name and address. Only after that did I receive the ballots (1 for choosing a minister; 1 for deciding on MMP), and after voting was asked to state my name for a second time before dropping the ballots in the box.
Outcome prediction? Results will be rolling through starting in about an hour, but here’s my predictions:
- Tory will lose Don Valley West … Kathleen Wynne will be the victor by a safe margin
- The NDP will finish a very distant third since its candidate, Mike Kenny, didn’t even bother to show up for the debate
- The Green Party will be fourth, but not far behind the Green Party, since the average Green Party supporter votes on principle rather than on the personality of any one candidate
- The Family Coalition party will be lucky to break triple digits. I didn’t even know there was a candidate here until I looked at the ballot
- Overall, Premier Dalton McGuinty and his Liberal Party will win a light majority because Ontarians were unable to look past the rather trivial school issue of faith-based schooling
- John Tory will step down … eventually. His replacement will be connected in some way to Stephen Harper
- MMP will fail because hardly anyone understands what it is. Green party supporters will be crushed.
9:47pm – City News has declared a Liberal majority. John Tory trails 754-380
I actually didn’t vote; none of the leaders particularly impressed me, so I just abstained. Now even though I disagreed with Tory about his stance on school funding, that per se would not have made or broken my vote. On the other hand, I think his “flipflop” on the position made many people sceptical of him. Again, even though I disagreed with his support of school funding, I think his backtracking on the issue made me even more suspicious of him. Anyway, just my opinion.
10:11pm – Tory and Wynne are about 300 votes apart.
Emilia – most politicians wait until after being elected to backtrack. I have no doubt that Tory’s flip-flop hurt his party’s chances, although the real mistake was trying to push for FB-schools in the first place. This isn’t the Deep South. Moreover, many of the Muslims etc in this region are trying to ESCAPE the extremism tied to religious education in their homeland. Tory only really got serious support from the GTA Jewish community and rural evangelicals – hardly a statistically significant demographic (though possibly a monetarily important one).
11:06 – Tory has conceded his seat and the election
Oh, I know politicians backtrack all the time – it comes with the territory. But it doesn’t give them much credibility. I think Tory backtracked on the school issue when he saw polls showing that people didn’t support funding religious schools.
My voting procedure was identical to yours, Cynapse. I.D., made to state name and address, etc. It must be standard regulation.
However, I deplore reports of bigotry and ill-feelings expressed even visually by ignorant members of our community. Sorry you and your new bride had to experience that. No need for it.
However, I don’t view John Tory as “back-tracking” per se. As pointed out, other provinces employ the faith-based schooling with some notable successes. Tory simply stated he retained the principles of the proposal, but people didn’t get it was just a proposal at this stage. Tory did say, he’d “seek the will of the people” on the matter, should he have been elected.
IMO, too many far right Conservatives lost this one for Tory, unwilling to make concessions, despite his principled/centre right stand on issues. They couldn’t ‘see the forest for the trees’ unfortunately. Amazing how people voted for higher taxation — that’s a given under the Liberals, once again in charge of the taxpurse, with their vested interests being served regularly.
Emilia, even if the inspiration wasn’t necessarily there to vote, either because of your perception of the individual or policy platform, there should be a way to choose anyway. Your vote, along with the many eligible that wouldn’t vote, may have made all the difference. Please remember that next time round. I think Ontarions will have to decide to demand tax justice, way prior to four years being up. Too long for economic justice to ensue.
To Anna, yes, I see your point, that I should have voted, even as a protest vote (say for the Green Party or other “alternative” parties). Ironically, I was noting that I’ve nicknamed my daughter the joey (baby kangaroo) because she’s always at the breast. But if I were a real kangaroo I’d have to vote because in Australia it’s an obligation for all citizens. I suppose the counterargument is that freedom includes the freedom not to vote.
I just hope the parties have more impressive leaders. I suppose as I get older I get more conservative, not socially (for example, I have no problem with same-sex marriage) but fiscally. I don’t think we’re getting what we pay in taxes. Example: TTC. The other day I walked from my house to the subway station, which took 15 minutes. In all that time the bus never came, even though this is a well-travelled route. So maybe the Conservatives will come up with a more charismatic leader next time…